The following GAIN reports were released on October 4, 2021.
Post forecasts production to increase slightly in 2022, despite Angola's challenges to expansion, including to a lack of animal feed, veterinary medicine, chicken feedlots, general infrastructure, and the prohibition of genetically engineered (GE) feed products. In 2020, Angola was the ninth largest importer of U.S. poultry meat by value ($80 million). Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and reduced consumer purchasing power, Angola chicken meat imports decreased 45 percent in 2020 but are forecast to increase in 2021. The United States is still Angola's largest poultry supplier and is expected to remain so in the near future.
Awareness over the health benefits of tree nuts has increased consumer demand over the past five years. Manufacturers are developing creative products to meet demand from millennial and other consumers. Almond imports in Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 are expected to continue rebounding on firm demand in the post COVID-19 pandemic era. Despite a projected increase in pistachio imports from the United States, overall pistachio imports are likely to drop in MY 2021/22 due to a sharp decline in Iranian supplies. Walnut imports from the United States are projected to decline in MY 2021/22 due to price hikes amid a smaller crop. China's commercial in-shell walnut production is forecast at 1.1 MMT in MY2021/22, unchanged from the previous year. Tree nut imports may be affected by new registration and labeling requirements.
With more than 83 million of the world's wealthiest consumers, Germany is the largest market for food and agricultural products in the European Union. The German market offers good opportunities for U.S. exporters of consumer-oriented food and agriculture products, particularly nuts, fish and seafood products, dried fruits, bakery products, and organic products. COVID-19 related lock-down and physical distancing measures heavily impacted the German food sector in 2020. In comparison to 2019, German food service sales decreased by 38.6 percent to USD 68 billion, with all three major market segments - hotel, restaurant, and catering - suffering from sales losses. The entire sector has been hit hard by the pandemic and government financial support was often not enough to compensate for the losses.
Sugar production in Mexico for marketing year 2021/22 is forecast to rebound from last year's drought affected season, after ample rain and optimal growing conditions have been observed in much of the country's cane producing states. Participation in the Manufacturing, Maquila and Export Services Industries Program (IMMEX) program is expected to remain strong, while reducing exports to markets other than the United States to ensure high returns for sugar mills and exporters.
Post expects the Philippine food service sector to shrink by a further 13 percent to $7.4 billion in 2021, following its 44 percent decline in 2020. With the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19, people are hesitant to return to restaurants. Recent lockdown measures to contain the pandemic have triggered further losses on on-premises sales. Most food service providers remaining in operation have shifted to online delivery platforms and curbside pickups. Larger chain restaurants have made inroads by selling ready-to-cook meals at retail stores. Despite reduced food service sales and strong competition from other suppliers, U.S. consumer-oriented agricultural exports to the Philippines are set for a record year, with trade up 35 percent to $840,000 through July 2021.
The impact of the COVID-19 health crisis on the Spanish Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional (HRI) sector has been nothing short of devastating. After hosting another record number of foreign visitors in 2019, Spain welcomed 18.9 million foreign tourists in 2020, a 77.3 percent decrease. As vaccination advances and restrictions are progressively lifted, Spain's economy is projected to grow 6.2 percent in 2021 and 5.8 percent in 2022. As a result, Spain's GDP is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2022. Though still far from the pre-pandemic scenarios, the recovery seems to be aided by the increase in domestic tourism, since many Spanish travelers opted to stay in Spain. The hospitality sector now hopes that international tourism will steadily recover.
Post maintains its estimate for marketing year 2020/2021 (MY20/21) corn consumption at 14.5 million metric tons (MMT), but revised MY21/22 corn consumption down to 14.35MMT on a lower estimate for feed and residual with anticipation of declining feed demand in the second half of CY2021. Post also raised its estimate for MY20/21 corn imports to 13MMT, but revised MY21/22 imports estimate down to 11.2MMT on high stock and potential lower imports in the coming months. Post revised its estimate for MY20/21 wheat consumption up to 3.65MMT, mainly on higher consumption of feed wheat, and revised its estimate for MY20/21 imports up to 3.86MMT based on Vietnam Customs data. Post revised MY20/21 rice paddy area and production estimates down to 7,330THA and 43.75MMT on contractions of the main and late autumn crops in the Mekong Delta. While maintaining its estimate for MY20/21 rice exports at 6.10MMT, Post revised rice imports up to 1.2MMT on higher imports from Cambodia and India.
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